A shift is underway in the world of prediction markets, transforming them from occasional, event-driven bets into platforms characterized by daily engagement and consistent user activity, according to a collaborative report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket. The report notes that in March, trading volume on Polymarket surged to $25.7 billion, underscoring a deeper behavioral change among users. Analysis of activity from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter reveals that users are not only returning more frequently but also participating across a broader spectrum of markets, including cryptocurrency, sports, and politics.
The growth in this sector is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating the market's continued dominance by retail participants. Instead of making large, sporadic bets, users are opting for smaller, more regular trades. Alvin Kan, Chief Operating Officer of Bitget Wallet, observed, 'Prediction markets are transitioning from being about capital to consistent, repeated actions. What we're witnessing is a behavioral shift: the market is scaling with more daily interactions, not larger trades.' Cryptocurrency serves as the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of initial activity due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements.
However, as users become more active, their participation expands to markets tied to real-world events. The report characterizes this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer solely driven by spikes around major events like elections but are becoming continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities.
Elden Mirzoian, Director of Growth and Partnerships at Polymarket, noted, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as crucial as the underlying market itself. We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also altering how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The growth has been rapid, with monthly trading volume escalating from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months.
Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term trajectory toward $1 trillion. As participation increases, the focus is shifting toward enhancing access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, facilitating users to discover markets and interact with them in real-time.