A historic stock market debut is approaching, and the crypto market is bracing for impact. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record and become the largest stock market debut in history.
However, this massive capital pull may have a significant effect on the crypto market, which shares the same liquidity pool. With OpenAI and Anthropic also planning to go public, the combined capital raise could exceed $240 billion, surpassing every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This may lead to a rotation out of equities and a compression of liquidity in other assets, including crypto. As a result, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may experience a downturn.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto.
Furthermore, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a significant disclosed bitcoin holding. The crypto market's performance during the roadshow window in May and June will be a key indicator of its resilience to the impending IPO.