Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some experts believe it has not escaped the bear market that began in October, given its current price is still 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high. Analyst James Check considers such a move highly unlikely, stating it would be statistically extraordinary, although not impossible.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which ranks the cryptocurrency's price on a historical percentile basis. According to this index, a price of $40,000 would be a '0.4 event,' placing it in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, below any meaningful deviation across major anchors.
For perspective, Check notes this would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. Currently, the price sits around the 31.5th percentile, which is historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check emphasizes that while there's no zero probability in markets, a $40,000 price point would be a nearly unprecedented outcome.