The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is stagnant, while other assets are experiencing significant movements. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This tight range persisted despite Brent crude oil prices exceeding $111 per barrel, driven by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has described the country as being in a 'State of Collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran has indicated that it may consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The only exception was Dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week, making it the sole top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit gains over the seven-day period.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a phenomenon that often occurs when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted that Bitcoin's relative stability is indicative of a shift in market structure. 'The supply overhang has finally dissipated, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' he stated in an email to CoinDesk. 'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think.
Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits,' Ebtikar added. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as the critical level where the upward range that has held since late March breaks, potentially leading to further downsides. A reversal toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices continue to fluctuate, remaining elevated near $111, and putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level will be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget will play out as expected.