Recent findings suggest that a small cohort of traders is dominating prediction markets, with an even smaller group accumulating the majority of the profits. A report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs discovered that on Polymarket, less than 1% of wallets are capturing roughly half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for approximately 50% of gains, resulting in roughly $8 million in profits for each group. This data reinforces previous research indicating that a small minority of traders drives most price discovery, with about 3% of Polymarket traders responsible for this phenomenon.
The report highlights that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders possess superior sophistication, capital, or speed in reacting to information. However, the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group of traders operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants. The study also identified signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Solidus Labs' findings are based on verifiable on-chain data, but the firm's sales pitch for its surveillance platform, HALO, should be considered when interpreting the results.