As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as a significant obstacle. A classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S. lawmakers highlighted that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, could take a minimum of six months and will only commence after the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved.
The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the midterm elections, according to the Washington Post. This could lead to persistent inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates, thereby creating a challenging environment for risk assets like bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity.
Rising essential costs could also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Market trends already reflect these risks, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 from $79 and government bond yields increasing across major economies. The U.S.
10-year yield has risen by eight basis points to 4.32%, and its U.K. counterpart has increased by 18 basis points to 4.96%. Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management, noted, 'Rising oil prices alongside yields and widening volatility spreads signal tighter financial conditions and increased market risks.' Despite this, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to see sustained demand, with the fastest inflows in a month based on the seven-day moving average of net flows.
However, some analysts urge caution, pointing out that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, warned, 'The recent Bitcoin price increase is driven by demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand is still contracting. This could lead to a correction if traders start taking profits.' The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high of $188.88 billion, and speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying, with overcrowding in bullish bets. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been steadily rising, topping the 100-day average, with the 50-day average potentially moving above the 100-day average, confirming a bullish crossover.