Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some industry experts believe it has yet to escape the bear market that started in October, given it remains 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high.
Bitcoin analyst James Check considers such a move unlikely, stating it would be statistically extraordinary, though not impossible. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which averages key valuation metrics and ranks Bitcoin's price on a historical percentile basis. At $40,000, Bitcoin would register as a 0.4 event, falling in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, below any meaningful deviation across major anchors. This would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis.
In contrast, the current price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check notes that while there's no zero probability in markets, a drop to $40,000 would be a near-unprecedented outcome.