According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's entry into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, not just reducing trading costs. The company's HIP-4 proposal, which introduces event trading, is expected to become a dominant force in the prediction market space.
Hayes believes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit directly from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust technology infrastructure, Hyperliquid is well-positioned to succeed.
The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion. Hayes' argument also highlights the geographic advantages of Hyperliquid, which has a strong user base in Asia and faces fewer regulatory constraints than its competitors. In contrast, Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, and does not offer token incentives, making it a direct test of Hayes' thesis that token-based platforms will dominate the prediction market space.