A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) set to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC earlier this month, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This massive capital pull could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially impacting the crypto market. Crypto assets, including bitcoin, have traded in tandem with tech and AI equities, and a significant allocation of capital to these IPOs could lead to a decrease in liquidity for crypto. The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale.
The upcoming SpaceX IPO will be closely watched, particularly given its 30% retail allocation and the company's significant bitcoin holdings. Whether crypto will hold up or drift lower during the roadshow window in May and June remains to be seen, with a potential test of the spot-ETF bid and its decoupling from broader risk-on flows.