The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement despite significant changes in the broader market. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over the past 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week.
This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has described its current state as one of "collapse," according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. However, Tehran has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The only exception among the top-10 tokens, excluding stablecoins, was dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually rising, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness suggests a shift in the market structure.
Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been alleviated, and sellers who were previously spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum concerns have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policies than perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility.
Given the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate pressure to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March would break, potentially leading to further downside. On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have fluctuated between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer present, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. Conversely, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.