Research has shown that a small group of traders has a significant impact on prediction markets, but a new report suggests that an even smaller group is taking home the majority of the profits. According to blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, profit concentration on Polymarket is extreme, with less than 1% of wallets capturing around half of all gains in key markets.
Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly half of the profits, with each group earning around $8 million out of a total of $16 million. This data supports previous academic research, which found that around 3% of Polymarket traders drive most price discovery.
The report highlights that while some traders may be more sophisticated or better capitalized, the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants. The study also identifies signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Solidus argues that this type of trading has no equivalent in traditional finance and may be driven by incentive farming rather than pure manipulation. The firm's report relies on data from its surveillance platform, HALO, which has been deployed across over 4,000 markets on Kalshi, Polymarket's largest U.S.-regulated competitor.