According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading options. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform, with a zero-fee-to-open model.
Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to profit directly from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to become a dominant player in the prediction market.
The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion. The geographical landscape also favors Hyperliquid, with a strong user base in Asia and no regulatory constraints.
In contrast, Polymarket is rebuilding its US business with compliance at its core, while Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The structural split between the three platforms is clear, with Hyperliquid tying usage to its token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.