The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin maintaining a steady position just below $77,000 on Wednesday in Asian trading hours, marking a 0.1% increase over the past 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices have exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the escalating tensions, Iran has warned of a 'State of Collapse,' while Tehran has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Meanwhile, other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced significant declines, with drops of 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.3%, respectively. In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside of stablecoins to record a gain over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in the market structure.
Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum concerns have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also emphasized that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policies than commonly perceived, with its sensitivity being primarily driven by broader market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure for investors to exit the market.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance level that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts to advance since February.
As the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, the US equity market is experiencing increased skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian trading hours. With Brent crude prices remaining elevated near $111 due to the blockade reports, inflation expectations are likely to come under renewed pressure ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. However, if the analysis is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could unfold as predicted.