As April comes to a close, bitcoin is adopting a cautious stance, trading at $78,192.97, but historical trends suggest that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially paving the way for an upward surge in the coming weeks. Since 2013, May has consistently been a favorable month for the cryptocurrency, with seven out of the last 13 years seeing gains.
Although the average return of around 8% is less remarkable than in months like October and November, it still indicates a positive trend. Following April's 10% increase, the seasonal pattern suggests that the broader uptrend may persist, supported by similar bullish trends in the S&P 500, which is currently near record highs.
The back-to-back net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds, totaling over $1.8 billion this month, indicate strong institutional demand and bolster the bullish case. However, traders must keep a close eye on bond markets, where rising yields pose a challenge to risk assets. Analysts warn that despite the positive outlook, risks such as global economic instability and rising bond yields could impact bitcoin's performance.
The impending crossover of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, known as a bullish crossover, may signal further price gains, but its reliability is mixed, particularly in bear markets.