A new report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket indicates a significant shift in the prediction market landscape, transforming from occasional event-based bets to platforms driven by daily user interaction. The report highlights a notable change in user behavior, with trading volume on Polymarket reaching $25.7 billion in March, and 1.29 million wallets participating in the first quarter. Users are now engaging more frequently, with over 82% trading less than $10,000, indicating a retail-driven market.
According to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO, 'prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions.' The report also notes that crypto serves as the primary entry point for new users, but as they become more active, they shift towards markets tied to real-world events. This evolution marks a structural change, with prediction markets transforming into continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities.
As Elden Mirzoian, Polymarket's director of growth and partnerships, states, 'we're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' The shift is also changing how these markets are used, with prices reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture. The industry is projected to reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion, and the focus is moving toward access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points for users to discover and interact with markets in real time.