A historic stock market debut is imminent, and the crypto market is bracing for impact. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This massive IPO, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, is expected to pull in over $240 billion from June to year-end, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The crypto market, which shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, may feel the effects of this capital shift.
As institutional investors allocate funds to these IPOs, they may reduce their investments in higher-risk assets like crypto, potentially triggering a decline in bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies. The historical parallel with Coinbase's 2021 IPO, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale.
With SpaceX's 30% retail allocation and its significant bitcoin holdings, the IPO's impact on crypto flows will be closely watched. The testable signal will be whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.