The alleged insider trading incident involving a Green Beret's $400,000 bet on a Venezuelan raid may be just the tip of the iceberg. A recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research group, analyzed over 435,000 Polymarket contracts from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, revealing a pattern of unusually high win rates in low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes. Typically, such longshot bets succeed around 14% of the time, but in military-linked contracts, success rates have exceeded 50% in some cases.
This discrepancy suggests that some traders may be operating with confidential information, creating an uneven playing field. The report's findings are consistent with previous research indicating that a small group of traders drives price discovery and captures the majority of profits on Polymarket.
The nonprofit's analysis of the June 2025 US strikes on Iran provides a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, resulting in significant profits for a small number of wallets. The consistent pattern of well-timed bets in military and defense markets raises concerns about information asymmetries and the potential for insider trading.
To address these issues, the report recommends implementing identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restricting markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limiting the granularity of contracts. Ultimately, the report calls for a nuanced discussion about the ethics of allowing the public to bet on military and defense outcomes.