The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, sparking concerns among crypto analysts that rising yields will hinder bitcoin's performance. This milestone has only been reached twice in the past two decades.
According to Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX, the current dynamic is straightforward: as long as yields remain attractive and the Fed's monetary policy stays tight, capital will favor safer alternatives, putting pressure on assets like crypto. Bitcoin is already feeling the strain, trading at $75,670, down 2% over 24 hours, while the Dollar Index hovers above 99.
The rise in bond yields typically hurts bitcoin and other risk assets because it makes bonds a more attractive investment. With the 30-year Treasury yielding 5%, investors may opt for this almost risk-free return over the volatility of crypto.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange, notes that rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have historically pressured crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs, is also elevated, pointing to financial tightening and disincentivizing risk-taking. The recent surge in oil prices, which reached their highest level since 2022, has lifted inflation expectations, further contributing to the rise in bond yields. As a result, the macro backdrop remains a headwind for crypto, with flows favoring yield and safety over volatility.