The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week.
This stability persists even as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel, driven by a Wall Street Journal report indicating that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the escalating situation, Iran has signaled its willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Meanwhile, other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The only exception among the top-10 tokens, excluding stablecoins, is dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when investors shift their capital to the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar notes that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He believes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since recovered 0.4% in Asian hours.
Brent crude oil prices continue to fluctuate, staying elevated near $111, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.