According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about cheaper trading, but about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes believes the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market. The ability for users to own the $HYPE token and directly profit from their usage of HIP-4 sets it apart.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The geographical constraints faced by Polymarket, including registration with the CFTC and restrictions in certain countries, also give Hyperliquid an advantage, particularly in Asia where its user base is strong.