A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% probability of a June listing and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull could trigger a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market. Crypto assets, including bitcoin, have traded in correlation with tech and AI equities, and the upcoming IPOs could lead to a compression of liquidity in the crypto market. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, could also impact crypto flows, as this money will not be available to bid on crypto assets. Additionally, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed bitcoin position under the new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to decline as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.