Research suggests that a small group of traders are driving the market, but an even smaller group is reaping most of the benefits. A report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs found that on Polymarket, less than 1% of wallets are taking home roughly half of the profits. Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for around 50% of the gains, totaling approximately $8 million out of $16 million in profits.
This data supports previous academic findings that a small minority of traders are responsible for most price movements. The report highlights that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders have a significant advantage due to their sophistication, capital, and speed.
However, the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group of privileged traders and the rest of the participants. The report also notes signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
This type of trade has no equivalent in traditional finance and may be driven by incentive farming rather than manipulation. The findings are part of a sales pitch for Solidus' surveillance platform, but the data is verifiable and highlights the need for surveillance infrastructure in prediction markets.