According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets focuses on capturing upside potential, not just reducing trading costs. Hyperliquid is set to launch a zero-fee model for event trading under HIP-4, which Hayes believes has the potential to dominate the prediction market due to its large user base, lower fees, and robust technology infrastructure.
Hayes notes that HYPE tokens allow users to directly profit from their platform usage, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. This differentiator, combined with Hyperliquid's existing user base and infrastructure, may give it an edge in the prediction market space.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing rather than token incentives, limiting users' access to the platform's upside.