The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid, initially thought to be an isolated incident, may be just the tip of the iceberg. An in-depth analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) of over 435,000 Polymarket contracts from January 2021 to mid-March 2026 has uncovered a disturbing trend. Low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have been winning at rates that defy explanation by skill or luck alone, with some success rates exceeding 50%. This is significantly higher than the average 14% success rate for similar bets in political markets.
The ACDC report suggests that these markets are particularly vulnerable to information asymmetries, including insider trading and specialized knowledge, which can create an unfair advantage for a small group of traders. The study's findings are consistent with previous research indicating that a small percentage of traders, approximately 3%, drive price discovery on Polymarket, while fewer than 1% of wallets capture about half of all gains. The report examines the June 2025 U.S.
strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, resulting in profits of about $1.8 million for eight wallets. The ACDC report recommends implementing identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, and restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups. Ultimately, the report calls for a broader debate on whether the public should be allowed to bet on such outcomes at all, citing the need for an evidence-informed discussion on the matter.