Bitcoin's Uptrend Faces Challenge from Inflation Warning Backed by the Pentagon

As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as an obstacle. The Pentagon recently informed U.S. lawmakers in a classified briefing that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, with the process commencing only after the U.S.-Iran conflict concludes. The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the midterm elections, according to the Washington Post. The persistent high energy costs risk sustaining inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. This creates a negative backdrop for risk assets, particularly bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions rather than real economic activity. Rising costs for essentials could reduce investors' willingness to allocate capital to speculative assets. These risks are reflected in markets, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 from $79 and government bond yields rising across major economies. The U.S. 10-year yield has increased to 4.32%, while its U.K. counterpart has risen to 4.96%. Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management, noted that 'oil prices are rising alongside yields and widening volatility spreads, signaling tighter financial conditions and increasing market risks.' Despite this, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand. However, some analysts urge caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, warned that 'the recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market. Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting.' The market capitalization of USDT has hit a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is reaching fever pitch. The ratio between bitcoin's price and gold has been steadily rising, with the 50-day average potentially moving above the 100-day average, confirming a bullish crossover.