A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, which could significantly impact the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Furthermore, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull could lead to a compression of liquidity in the crypto market, as investors allocate their funds to these IPOs. The correlation between crypto and tech stocks has been increasing, with bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
As a result, when speculative capital leaves the equity market to invest in these IPOs, it may also reduce the demand for crypto assets. Historically, institutional milestones have often marked the peak of a cycle rather than the beginning, as the capital that chases these milestones is often the same capital that was previously supporting the asset.
The SpaceX IPO, in particular, has two features that could impact crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation and the company's significant bitcoin holdings. The outcome will depend on whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows and hold up through the roadshow window in May and June.