Bitcoin, currently priced at $78,441.94, has seen a 3% decline in morning trading in Asia, hovering near $77,000 as markets prepare for a week filled with significant macroeconomic catalysts. This move seems to be driven by caution rather than a change in market sentiment. According to Singapore-based market maker Enflux, in a note to CoinDesk, traders are hesitant to drive bitcoin prices higher ahead of the upcoming rate decision on Wednesday and subsequent data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index.
These releases will collectively shape expectations for when, or if, the Fed can initiate rate cuts in the latter half of the year. Presently, oil poses the biggest constraint, with Brent crude remaining above $100, thereby complicating the inflation outlook and setting a high bar for a dovish signal from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Enflux suggests that the market operates under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but any resolution will not materialize quickly enough to influence near-term policy. This combination has effectively ruled out rate cuts for June, as indicated by Polymarket bettors who give a 95% chance of 'no change', and has created a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets.
As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700, a level often viewed as a proxy for marginal buyer conviction. A decisive move above this level would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation will prove temporary.
In the absence of such a signal, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade tentatively into Thursday's data releases, with sharper moves more likely tied to the macro prints than to the Fed statement itself. Looking beyond this week, a less visible factor may also be influencing bitcoin's next moves. A report by The Wall Street Journal on Monday indicated that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand. Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt while selling portions of their treasuries to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this pivot could theoretically slow selling. When demand for compute is strong, miners have the incentive and financing to continue building, often leading to continued BTC sales to fund capital expenditures and service debt.
However, if OpenAI's miss signals that AI growth may not keep pace with expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex. A slowdown in AI expansion could ease miner-driven selling over time, removing a source of supply. The issue is timing: sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks due to weaker tech and risk appetite would likely bring down the crypto market, while any relief from slower miner selling would come later.
In this sense, the AI story reinforces Enflux's broader point that the market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price. For now, this keeps bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, awaiting a clearer signal.