According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. Hyperliquid is set to launch a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, a proposal that introduces event trading on the platform. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit from platform activity.
He stated that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, and that users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
The geographical factor also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory constraints in Asia, while Hyperliquid faces no equivalent constraints and has a user base that skews towards Asia. The contrast is clearest with Kalshi, which, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is unlikely to offer token incentives, making it a direct test of Hayes' thesis.