Gemini Secures Derivatives License, Set to Challenge Kalshi and Polymarket in Prediction Markets

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has granted Gemini a derivatives clearinghouse (DCO) license, enabling the company to clear and settle trades internally. This development allows Gemini to exert greater control over its prediction market products and scale its operations more efficiently. Following the announcement, Gemini's shares experienced a surge of approximately 7%. The prediction market sector has witnessed remarkable growth, with trading volumes increasing by over 300% in 2025 to reach $63.5 billion. As a result, Gemini is poised to compete with established players like Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as newcomers such as Hyperliquid. The company's expansion into prediction markets builds upon its December 2025 launch of a prediction marketplace through its affiliate, Gemini Titan, which received a designated contract market (DCM) authorization from the CFTC. With both DCM and DCO licenses in place, Gemini is now well-positioned to offer a comprehensive trading ecosystem that encompasses sports, crypto, futures, options, and event-based contracts. The company has also expressed its intention to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetuals for US users. Cameron Winklevoss framed this development as a significant milestone in Gemini's marketplace expansion, highlighting the company's ambitions to create a 'super app' for financial services. Gemini's focus on the US market follows its exit from the UK, European Union, and Australia, which involved a staff reduction of approximately 25%. The founders emphasized their belief that America has the world's greatest capital markets and that prediction markets will potentially surpass the size of today's capital markets.