The general consensus among retail investors is that bitcoin's price, currently at $78,420.27, will exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning the year-to-date return from negative to positive. However, it remains to be seen whether the market will follow this trend.
Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, and found that the majority of posts over the past week have predicted bitcoin's price to rise above $90,000. Mentions of a price range between $50,000 and $59,000 are being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The crowd is expecting the slow recovery from the February low of around $60,000 to continue into May, driven by factors such as the return of flows into exchange-traded funds and bitcoin's resilience in the face of recent global events. According to Santiment, this widespread bullish sentiment is actually a reason to be cautious, as overly optimistic social media sentiment can often precede a bearish market performance.
This concept is echoed by traditional contrarian traders, who use sentiment gauges such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their investment decisions. Notably, bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled this week, with prices pulling back to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving uncertainty about whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a broader reversal.