According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, which introduces event trading on the platform, is expected to be a major player in the prediction market space. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit directly from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market venue.
The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data, and its benefits are expected to give Hyperliquid an edge over its competitors. In contrast, Polymarket is still in the process of launching its token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without the token incentives that Hayes sees as a key factor in Hyperliquid's success.