As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, broader economic uncertainty has reemerged as a challenge. A classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S. lawmakers highlighted that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months and may only commence after the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved. This has raised concerns that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the midterm elections, potentially keeping inflation high and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.
This scenario could negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity. Rising costs of essentials could also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Markets are already reflecting these risks, with WTI crude prices climbing to around $95 and government bond yields increasing across major economies. Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts are urging caution, citing the lack of broad-based support in the spot market and the potential for a correction if traders start taking profits.
The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, while speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying, with overcrowding in bullish bets. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising, with the potential for a bullish crossover, suggesting continued outperformance of bitcoin relative to gold.