It appears that a limited number of traders are dominating prediction markets, but an even smaller subset is accumulating the majority of the profits. According to a recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, profit concentration on Polymarket is exceptionally high, with less than 1% of wallets accounting for approximately half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, the report found that 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets captured around 50% of gains, which translates to roughly $8 million out of $16 million in profits. This data reinforces the notion that a small minority has a significant impact on price movements, as previously suggested by a London Business School and Yale paper.
However, the disparity between this small group and the broader participant base raises concerns about a structural divide. The report highlights that the traders who are capturing a disproportionate share of profits operate with significant advantages, including greater capital depth, infrastructure, and execution strategies. Furthermore, the study identifies signs of wash trading, with approximately 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. While some of this volume may be attributed to incentive farming, it is essential to approach the data with a critical perspective, considering the potential motivations behind the report.