According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, which introduces event trading on the platform, is expected to be a game-changer.
Hayes argues that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market. The HYPE token allows users to directly profit from their usage of HIP-4, giving Hyperliquid a competitive edge. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints in Asia, where its user base is skewed. The contrast between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi is clear, with each platform having a distinct approach to prediction markets and token incentives.