Gemini Secures Derivatives License, Positions Itself to Challenge Kalshi and Polymarket in Prediction Markets

The crypto exchange, Gemini, co-founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has been granted a derivatives clearinghouse license by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This approval enables Gemini to clear and settle trades internally, providing greater control over its prediction market products and scalability. Following the announcement, Gemini's shares experienced a surge of approximately 7%. The prediction market sector has witnessed significant growth, with trading volumes increasing by over 300% in 2025 to $63.5 billion. As a result, Gemini is now poised to compete with established players such as Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as newcomers like Hyperliquid. The company's plans for expansion into the U.S. market are part of its broader strategy to create a 'super app' for financial services. Gemini has expressed its intention to offer a comprehensive trading ecosystem, including sports, crypto, futures, options, and event-based contracts, and to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetuals for U.S. users.