A historic stock market debut is imminent, and its impact on the crypto market is being closely watched. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The massive capital raise is expected to draw interest from investors, potentially diverting funds away from crypto. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with estimated valuations of $1 trillion and a potential $60 billion raise, respectively.
The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from June to year-end could exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the market. Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, warns that the SpaceX IPO could mark a turning point for equities, drawing parallels to the Solana $300 moment.
The MSCI has modeled a scenario where megacap IPOs in 2026 could trigger index-driven flows, sector-rotation effects, and a compression of liquidity in non-megacap assets. As crypto is closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, a decrease in liquidity could negatively impact crypto prices.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in April 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown. The lesson is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. Two features of the SpaceX listing connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's significant bitcoin holdings, making it the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.