According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading options, but about who captures the upside. The decentralized exchange is set to launch a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, which Hayes believes will be a game-changer. He argues that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit directly from their platform activity. This sets Hyperliquid apart from competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi, which do not currently offer this feature.
With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to become a dominant player in the prediction market. The fact that users can own the HYPE token and directly benefit from their usage of HIP-4 gives Hyperliquid a significant advantage.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and premarket perpetual contracts are already trading, implying a valuation of around $14 billion. However, HYPE has a fully diluted valuation of approximately $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data. The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having a strong user base in the region. Kalshi, on the other hand, is a CFTC-regulated exchange that focuses on compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives, which limits its ability to offer users a path to the upside of the platform.
This makes it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes on Kalshi but have no way to access the platform's upside. The contrast between the three platforms highlights the structural differences in their approaches, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.