The resurgence of the Iran war premium has had a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin fell 2.1% to $75,633, with a weekly decline of 3%, while Brent crude jumped 7.1% to $126.41 a barrel, its highest level in four years, following an Axios report that President Trump will receive a briefing on new military options against Iran. This report also mentioned that the US Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, which would be the first time these weapons have been used by American forces in combat.
The resulting conflict risk has led to a war premium being factored into asset prices, rather than just supply and demand fundamentals. As a result, Brent crude has seen a significant increase of over 100% year-to-date. The global benchmark has now seen nine consecutive days of gains, the longest streak since May 2022. Other cryptocurrencies also saw declines, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244, XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37, and Solana losing 2.6% to $82.62.
The only exception among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, excluding stablecoins, was dogecoin, which rose 3.8% to $0.10. Risk assets have been declining across the board, with Nasdaq 100 futures giving up earlier gains and MSCI's Asia Pacific share index falling 1.4%. The dollar has strengthened, while bonds have slid due to the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed stance. Treasury 10-year yields have remained near their highest level since July, while Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997.
Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, with the asset having held a tight range between $74,000 and $78,000 in April despite the increase in oil prices and the conflict entering its third month. However, each escalation headline has produced a sharper decline, and the cumulative damage is starting to show. Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 will require the war premium to unwind.
Lillo stated that bitcoin is trying to break the key $80,000 level, which would require a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a subsequent drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel. He also suggested that the Trump administration may lift the naval blockade of Iran in the coming days and frame it as a response to positive steps by Iran, potentially triggering a relief rally. A possible lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could lead to an influx of capital into risk assets, allowing bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move towards $85,000.