This excerpt is from the CoinDesk 'Daybook' newsletter. Subscribe now if you haven't already. Bitcoin surged to $77,400, rebounding alongside other risk assets after major US tech companies' earnings reports helped stabilize the market. The rally followed Apple's earnings report, which, along with those of Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, showed double-digit revenue growth.

Although these reports lifted risk assets and crypto, the current bounce is attributed to relief buying rather than a conviction that a new uptrend has begun. According to Mercado Bitcoin, the market faces 'short-term pressure with mixed structural factors,' including diminished hopes for rate cuts, ETF outflows, and heightened geopolitical risks.

Despite oil price surges and over $400 million in outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs, crypto prices remained steady as April ended. The ongoing Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could drive inflation, making central banks less likely to cut interest rates, which may negatively impact crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more appealing. The Federal Reserve maintained its 3.50% to 3.75% interest rate, with four dissenting voices, the most since 1992.

The lack of clear rate-cut signals led to a repricing of policy expectations. 'In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data,' said Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin.

'In the medium term, the structure remains dependent on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.' With Jerome Powell's Fed chairmanship ending on May 15 and Kevin Warsh expected to chair the June FOMC meeting, volatility may increase due to Warsh's preference for tightening monetary policy. The key test for bitcoin remains at $80,000; a break could attract new buyers, while a failed attempt may trigger selling if leveraged long positions are unwound. For analysis of today's altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today, and for a comprehensive list of this week's events, see CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead.

Currently trending: the weekly bitcoin price is testing resistance at $80,000, with the RSI showing early signs of a bullish divergence, though this remains unconfirmed on a weekly close. Failure to break above this level may keep the price range-bound between the 200-day exponential moving average of about $68,000 and the $80,000 level.