A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket indicates that prediction markets are undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from occasional event-driven bets to platforms characterized by daily user engagement. The report highlights that trading volume on Polymarket reached $25.7 billion in March, with a notable change in user behavior. Based on data from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter, users are participating more frequently and across a broader range of markets, including cryptocurrency, sports, and politics.
The growth is driven by the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating that the market is primarily driven by retail participants. Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are engaging in smaller trades more regularly.
According to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's chief operating officer, 'prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,' reflecting a behavioral shift where the market is scaling with more frequent trades rather than larger ones. Cryptocurrency remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity, but as users become more active, they shift towards markets tied to real-world events.
The report frames this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major occurrences but are becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities. As Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket, notes, 'we're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is changing how these markets are used, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The growth of the industry has accelerated rapidly, with monthly trading volume climbing from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is moving toward access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real time.