Bitcoin, currently at $78,199.97, has dropped 3% in morning Asian trading, hovering near $77,000 as the market prepares for a week filled with significant macroeconomic events. The move seems to be driven by caution rather than a change in sentiment. According to Singapore-based market maker Enflux, traders are hesitant to drive bitcoin's price higher before the upcoming rate decision and data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index, which will shape expectations for potential rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of the year.
The primary constraint currently is oil, as Brent crude remains above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and making it challenging for the Fed to send a dovish signal. Enflux notes that the market operates under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but not quickly enough to influence near-term policy, effectively pricing out rate cuts for June and creating an ambiguous backdrop for risk assets.
As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700, a level often seen as a proxy for marginal buyer conviction. A decisive move above this level would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation is temporary.
Otherwise, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade cautiously into Thursday's data releases, with sharper moves likely tied to macro prints rather than the Fed statement itself. Looking beyond this week, a less visible force may also influence bitcoin's next moves.
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand. Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt and sold portions of their treasuries to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining.
A slowdown in this pivot could potentially slow selling. When demand for compute is strong, miners have the incentive and financing to keep building, often leading to continued BTC sales to fund capex and service debt.
However, if OpenAI's miss signals that AI growth may not keep pace with expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex. A slowdown in AI expansion could ease miner-driven selling over time, removing a source of supply. The problem is timing: sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks due to weaker tech and risk appetite would likely bring down the crypto market, while any relief from slower miner selling would come later. In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux's broader point.
The market is stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adds another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price. For now, that keeps bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.