A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's highly anticipated IPO expected to take place in June. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019. However, this massive capital raise may have a profound impact on the crypto market, as it draws liquidity away from bitcoin and other digital assets.
With OpenAI and Anthropic also planning to go public, the combined capital raise of over $240 billion could exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the crypto market. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. As institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, the capital that chases these milestones may be the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
With SpaceX holding a significant amount of bitcoin, its IPO could be the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position, making it a testable signal for crypto flows.