Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it is still 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high. Bitcoin analyst James Check considers such a move unlikely, stating it would be statistically extraordinary. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which ranks Bitcoin's price on a historical percentile basis.
At $40,000, Bitcoin would register as a 0.4th percentile event, meaning it would fall in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, below any meaningful deviation across major anchors. This would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. In contrast, today's price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check notes that while there's no zero probability in markets, a $40,000 price point would be a near-unprecedented outcome.