According to Michael Terpin, a renowned early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich, the price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must surpass $100,000, a level that has not been reached. He anticipates the bottom of the market to be around $57,000, which he expects to occur in October.
This prediction contradicts the views of many analysts who believe the bear market ended in February when the price was around $60,000. Terpin's forecast is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, where he notes that lower highs are typically rejected until the final capitulation. While some analysts, such as Jason Fernandes, agree that the market has not yet fully capitulated, they disagree with Terpin's timeline.
Fernandes believes that the market may not have fully capitulated yet and that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point towards a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. Other analysts, such as Mati Greenspan, disagree with Terpin's bearish outlook, stating that there is still room for growth this year given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. The debate among analysts highlights the uncertainty and complexity of predicting bitcoin's price movements.