A significant number of retail investors believe that bitcoin's current price of $78,114.05 will exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning this year's negative returns into a positive. However, it remains to be seen whether the market will follow this trend.
Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms and found that the majority of users are expecting bitcoin's price to surpass $90,000. Mentions of lower price ranges, such as $50,000-$59,000, are being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The crowd's optimism is likely due to the recent recovery from the February low of around $60,000, as well as the resilience of bitcoin's price in the face of various global conflicts and DeFi hacks. According to Santiment, this widespread bullishness is actually a reason to be cautious, as overly optimistic social sentiment can often be a contrarian indicator for a potential bearish performance. This concept is similar to the idea that 'wherever the crowd goes, run in the other direction,' as they are often wrong.
In traditional markets, contrarian traders use sentiment gauges, such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index, to track retail investor sentiment. Interestingly, bitcoin's recovery rally has stalled this week, with prices pulling back to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving it uncertain whether this is just a pause or the start of a broader reversal.