The US-driven rally in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between Coinbase prices and those on offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to nearly $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has been declining since. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or a lack of buying interest.
On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of bitcoin realized losses spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This realized loss is only recognized when holders sell coins below their original purchase price. The fact that the realized loss reached nearly $6 billion at a price of $78,000 implies that the sellers were buyers who entered at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, and are now using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a re-entry point. The combination of these two datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchases through Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity.
Bitcoin was recently trading around $76,000. Going forward, traders will be watching to see if the realized loss metric continues to decline as the supply of underwater coins is worked through. The reading has already dropped from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating that the seller cohort may be dwindling.