A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to take place in June, potentially drawing interest and liquidity away from crypto. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are set to raise a combined total of over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on crypto, as it sits in the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The correlation between crypto and equities has been tightening over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and ether trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may also leave crypto, potentially leading to a decline in prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The lesson from that experience is that institutional milestones can frequently mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is often the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. With SpaceX's IPO, two key features connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's material bitcoin position, disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.