The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario, with Bitcoin exhibiting minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week.
This stability is notable, especially considering the surge in Brent crude prices above $111 per barrel, triggered by reports of an extended US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has reportedly instructed aides to prepare for this blockade, amid claims that Iran is in a 'state of collapse.' Tehran, however, has signaled potential acceptance of an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with losses ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week.
In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to record gains over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness may indicate a shift in market structure.
'The supply overhang has finally dried up, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' Ebtikar noted. He added that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely believed, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by wider market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure for investors to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 could maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance level that has rejected Bitcoin's advances since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the benefits of artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since rebounded by 0.4% in Asian hours. The price of Brent crude remains elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines, until a new selling wave is triggered.
If his read is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as anticipated.