Roundhill Investments is poised to introduce the first U.S. exchange-traded funds tied to prediction markets, with a launch date set for next week, and two additional asset managers are preparing to launch similar products. According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Roundhill will list six funds that are tied to the outcome of whether Democrats or Republicans will control the White House, Senate, and House.

The launch is scheduled for May 5, as reported by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. The funds include the Roundhill Democratic President ETF, Republican President ETF, Democratic Senate ETF, Republican Senate ETF, Democratic House ETF, and Republican House ETF.

The House and Senate products are linked to the outcome of the November 3, 2026, elections, while the presidential products are tied to the November 7, 2028, election. These funds gain exposure through swap agreements that reference binary event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets, which settle at $1 if the predicted outcome occurs and $0 if it does not. The prospectus explicitly warns that if the targeted party fails to win, the fund will lose nearly all its value. Roundhill has no plans to terminate the funds after settlement; instead, once the market prices a winner at above $0.995 or below $0.005 for five consecutive trading days, the fund treats the outcome as decided and transitions into the next cycle.

For the midterm funds, this means exposure to the 2028 House and Senate elections, and for the presidential funds, exposure to the 2032 presidential race. The prospectus also notes that if the market is later proven incorrect, there will be no recourse for shareholders. Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed identical six-fund slates in February, with Bitwise using a PredictionShares brand, although their structures differ; Bitwise's funds terminate shortly after each outcome is determined, while GraniteShares, like Roundhill, rolls into the next election.

While political event contracts are already traded on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, the introduction of ETFs could expand access by allowing them to be held in ordinary brokerage accounts and some retirement accounts. This development comes after the CFTC withdrew a Biden-era proposal in February that would have banned political event contracts, although state regulators in Massachusetts, New York, Nevada, and elsewhere continue to challenge the underlying contracts in court. Roundhill has also filed to list non-political prediction market ETFs tied to the possibility of the U.S.

entering a recession, as reported by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.