The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts about the potential impact on bitcoin. This significant increase in bond yields is largely attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, elevated oil prices, and rising long-term inflation expectations. As a result, investors may opt for the relatively safe and attractive returns offered by bonds, potentially leading to a decline in riskier assets like bitcoin.
The current market conditions, including an uptick in the Dollar Index, are already putting pressure on bitcoin, which has fallen 2% over the past 24 hours. Experts warn that rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have historically led to decreased crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions.
The surge in bond yields is not limited to the US, as yields are also rising in the UK and other parts of the world, pointing to a broader trend of financial tightening. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, combined with internal dissent among its officials, has contributed to expectations of higher interest rates for an extended period, further driving up bond yields. The oil price rally, which has reached its highest level since 2022, is also lifting inflation expectations, thereby pushing yields higher. According to experts, the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by rising yields and a strong dollar, will likely continue to pose a challenge for bitcoin and other risk assets.